Let me start off by pointing out that I am wrong. That’s what every Afghan I have talked to, here and in the US, has told me about the following opinion:
I’m not scared of the Taliban anymore; in fact I’m scared for them. I mean, I’m a little scared of being blown up by their newly intensive campaign to kill and frighten non-combatant foreigners here in Kabul (this one was scary, oh and this one), but I’m no longer really afraid that Afghanistan will fall into the hands of those total lunatics if NATO leaves.
Here is why: Everything is different from the nineties, when the Taliban managed to gain a precarious hold on the majority of the territory of Afghanistan. Sure, there are some advantages they now enjoy as opposed to fifteen years ago, with the most important being that Ahmad Shah Massoud, the only warlord that was still effectively resisting the Taliban in 2001 and who seemed to care a little bit (in his later years) about human rights, was killed right before 9/11. No one—certainly not Karzai—has replaced Massoud, who spent most of his relatively short life fighting communists, the Taliban and finally dying at the hands of Al Qaeda suicide bombers.
But I'm not going to dwell on that, especially since many Pashtun don’t consider the Tajik Shah Massoud to have been all that great. So anyway, beyond that little advantage, even if NATO left, the Taliban would have to overcome several disadvantages that they did to have to face when they overran the civil war-torn country in the nineties.
1. They can no longer depend on Pakistan’s full support. Sure they still have safe havens and even some amount of covert assistance from rogue elements in the military or Islamist factions in the government. But in the nineties, Pakistan, with its own cash and that of Saudi Arabia, fully supported the Taliban without shame or care. That’s just not going to be the case anymore.
2. The Taliban have been fighting NATO for ten years now (sort of). Though that makes them battle hardened, it also makes them battered. Meanwhile their traditional foes, the warlords of the Northern Alliance have been collecting money, arms and allies in the region, while enjoying the protection and training of the most modern and professional fighting force on Earth.
3. Most of the Afghan population is no longer curious about what life would be like under the Taliban. They know. And not even a majority of Pashtun liked what Mullah Omar hath wrought.
4. In 2001, the Northern Alliance with the help of air support and only 4000 foreign troops pushed the entrenched Taliban into Pakistan. How are the Taliban going to push out the Afghan government, who will continue to have air support for the next fifty years (even if it is fractured into the little pieces that represented the Northern Alliance)?
So, what is it that Afghans say when I ask them about this? Whether I speak with a driver or a minister here in Afghanistan, they continue to fear the Taliban, because everyone else lacks any sense of unity and purpose. Further, they just don’t trust any of the warlords to stay and fight. While they fear and hate the Taliban, everyone accepts that those guys are motivated and brave fighters and that Mullah Omar, crazy though he may be, is not the type to pack up and leave with his poppy profits if the going gets tough.
My argument is one based on an analysis of resources, alliances, strategies, and historical facts. Theirs is based on personalities, motivation and conspiracy theories. This, of course, is my daily experience when discussing anything from human resource issues to car registration.This is not to say they are not right, just that I'm not used to analyzing those data points.
In any case, if I’m right, then the worst thing that could happen to the Taliban would be an exit by NATO. All of the powerful warlords currently biding their time and enjoying cozy government positions are ruthless war criminals. Literally all of them, whether Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara or Uzbek. If they get to be in charge of the actual war against the Taliban, all of the criticisms against NATO night raids, aerial bombings and drone attacks will seem quaint.
Can you imagine a scenario when the international community has to rescue the Taliban and their families from war criminals and make claims on their behalf?
Next: Why the next guard/official/bureaucrat who messes with me will cause my incarceration.
